Today is the 25th anniversary of Nolan Ryan beating up Robin Ventura

Lest it be forgotten, it's time to remind everyone that 25 years ago today, Nolan Ryan (in the final year of a career known for being a wild pitcher) hit Robin Ventura with a pitch, and Ventura decided to charge the mound.

The YouTube video is titled "Nolan Ryan fight Robin Ventura", but really Ventura just gets punched in the face repeatedly by a guy old enough to be his dad.

Apparently this has been a popular subject recently, googling "nolan ryan beats up robin ventura" reveals yearly posts about it in the run-up to the 25th anniversary.

No HOFers

The BBWAA did not elect anyone to the Hall of Fame this year, thus providing plenty of fodder for the baseball blogs until spring training.  Perhaps the best and most complete entry I've seen on the whole issue is The 50 best baseball players not in the Hall of Fame, Version 3.0, but to me, the biggest shame is that Lou Whitaker is no longer even on the ballot to have a chance at being voted in with Alan Trammel.  A pair like Trammel and Whitaker is rare; we all know Tinker and Evers (and Chance), but Trammel and Whitaker were even better. 

Kenny Lofton only received 3.2% of the vote, which is a shame if you consider him to be the 8th greatest CF of all time...  I have a hard time getting around his poor playoff numbers, and he had 438 postseason plate appearances, so no small-sample problem here.  Worse, while I had primarily remembered him as part of all those Cleveland teams that fell short in the postseason, he was also a part of the Giants team that lost the last two games of the 2002 WS, the Cubs team that lost the last 3 games (two at home) of the 2003 NLCS, and the Yankees team that lost the last 4 games of the 2004 ALCS.  In a sport as superstitious as baseball, you gotta conclude that poor guy is cursed.

Poster child for the problems with WAR

These are Adam Dunn's 2004-2010 seasons.  While I think that the 2004 season is his best and 2006 was his worst in this time period**, he was generally a model of consistency.  Unfortunately, while WAR and the human eye agree about his 2004 season, I can't wrap my head around the idea that 2009 was his worst NL season and 2010 was his third best.

GP	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	WAR
161	568	151	34	0	46	108	195	6	1	0.266	0.388	0.569	0.957	4.4
160	543	134	35	2	40	114	168	4	2	0.247	0.387	0.54	0.927	2.6
160	561	131	24	0	40	112	194	7	0	0.234	0.365	0.49	0.855	0.1
152	522	138	27	2	40	101	165	9	2	0.264	0.386	0.554	0.94	1.2
158	517	122	23	0	40	122	164	2	1	0.236	0.386	0.513	0.899	0.6
159	546	146	29	0	38	116	177	0	1	0.267	0.398	0.529	0.927	-0.6
158	558	145	36	2	38	77	199	0	1	0.26	0.356	0.536	0.892	2.2

Looking at Dunn's Player Value -- Batters table on baseball-reference.com, the problem is the vagaries of DWAR.  The OWAR rankings of his seasons fairly closely follow OPS (I'm assuming any slight differences are due to the fact that what constitutes a "good" OPS changed slightly from season to season), and thus the wild variation in DWAR, which is due more to the small-sample nature of defensive statistics than any actual change in performance, dominates the year-to-year differences in WAR.

OWAR	DWAR
4.8	-1.2
4	-2.3
1.9	-2.4
3.7	-3.2
3	-3.2
3.7	-5.2
3.4	-2.1

While WAR isn't simply OWAR + DWAR, DWAR clearly plays an important role in devaluing WAR as an estimate of player worth in a given year, and I'd rather look at OWAR.  But if OWAR closely follows OPS over the course of a generation of players, then I'd rather simply look at OPS, which is more intuitive and immediately evident from the seasonal stats.

** I want to be absolutely, positively clear that we're talking about 2004-2010, and not looking at his 2011 season, which was arguably the worst all-time.

dWAR

I like numbers, and not surprisingly, I like baseball.  More specifically, I like looking at the numbers that the game of baseball produces, and the statistics that researchers have come up with to compare player performance.

But I have difficultly loving defensive wins above replacement, particularly because dWAR is susceptible to wild swings from season to season, but especially if believing in dWAR means I have to believe that Dave Winfield was as bad a fielder as, or worse than, Manny Ramirez.  (scroll to the "Player Value" table and see that Winfield's career dWAR is lower than Manny's).  I'm just having a hard time with that idea.

Separated at birth?

My mom pointed this out during the 1987 playoffs.  It's still eerie.

And then there were eight

If you follow the sports, you might have heard that the Braves and Red Sox both completed historic collapses last night, or alternatively, that the Cardinals and Rays completed historic comebacks.  


The NYT has adequately documented the Sox collapse, but the same article could be written concerning the Braves, if only the Braves and Cardinals played in the AL East instead of the Red Sox and Rays**.  In fact, Cardinals, without Wainwright for the season, with Carpenter getting older, and with various nagging injuries to their 3-4-5 hitters, looked worse off to my eye than the Rays, and like they might miss the playoffs for Pujols' possibly last season in a Cardinals uniform. 

What shouldn't be lost in all this is that the Braves would still be alive if Kimbrel hadn't blown a save. The Red Sox would be alive if Papelbon hadn't blown a save, or if the Yankees hadn't sent Cory Wade out for the ninth.  All of which is to say that, if you weren't already convinced, Mariano Rivera is the greatest reliever of all time -- which is something, even if that means he's "only" been as valuable over his career as Tommy John, David Cone, or Bret Saberhagen.  After all, being the 50th most valuable pitcher of all time is damn good, and leagues better than the next reliever on the list (Gossage, if you're counting at home; I don't include Eck because he had a great career as a starter before becoming a reliever).


** though you could then plausibly argue that the Angels would be the AL WC, all disrespect to the strength of the NL intended

Midseason ruminations

Given that the Padres were out of contention once Adrian Gonzalez was traded (and perhaps before even then, since the starting pitchers overachieved last year), I haven't really paid much attention to the season.  When I finally looked up, there were some interesting things going on, and while I meant to post during the all-star lull, I didn't finish these thoughts in time.

The Middling.  Continuing on the start of this post, as woeful as the Padres look right now, there's a little bit of hope for the future, especially if the prospects from the Gonzalez trade (and seemingly imminent Adams and Bell trades) pan out.  Also, Chase Headley might... just *might*, mind you, actually be finally showing some signs that the Padres could get by with him as their "star" for the next few years until the prospects are ready for the bigs.

Also, as good as Adrian Gonzalez has been, I thought he'd be showing more power.  I was expecting 50+ doubles (and he's even temporarily dropped off that rate), but also 40+ HR's.  However, along with the guys in front of and behind him, it appears the strategy is to just get on base, and I can't really argue with the results so far.

The Surprisingly Good.  There are a number of players having really good seasons, but clearly it's the Pirates as a team, not only with a great shot at achieving a winning record for the first time since Barry Bonds wore their uniform, but actually chasing a playoff spot, who are the biggest surprise.  I don't think their pitching is good enough for them to be this year's version of the 2010 Giants, but simply getting swept out of the playoffs by the Phillies would be a huge accomplishment for them.

The Shockingly Bad.  It's one thing to be a middling player having a bad season (Uggla, Stewart, Loney, Tejada, Figgins, Rios, Drew, all of whom are mentioned as mid-season "LVP" candidates by Jayson Stark), but quite another to be a superstar having a middling season, and there are a number of those.  So who is having the most shockingly bad season?  A few weeks ago my short list was Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Howard, Adam Dunn, and Ichiro Suzuki.

Even a few weeks ago, Pujols wasn't having a bad season... unless your name was Albert Pujols.  His OPS was 200 points below his career average, and he was on pace to hit fewer than 30 2B, 30 HR and 100 RBI, and less than .300, for the first time in his career.  He's now back on track to hit 30 HR, but his projected numbers for the season are a little shy of 100 RBI, several shy of 30 2B, and he has a lot of work to do to reach .300.  He could easily lose out on all 3 of those streaks, but as a power hitter, the one that matters most is the HR streak.

While Ramirez got off to an awful start, he seems to have responded to McKeon, and is now having a great July.  There's every reason to believe he can salvage the rest of the season.

Similarly to Pujols, Howard's numbers aren't terrible... unless you're being paid $20M/year to be the best hitter on a team with WS aspirations.  The Phillies offense has seriously underperformed, and Howard isn't helping with a seesaw season of great April, terrible May, good June, terrible July.  Then again, is Howard's poor performance this season really "shocking"?  His power numbers (in particular, his AB/HR has increased every year) and OBP have been in a steady decline since his breakout 2006 season.  Perhaps the Phillies would have done better to try to ship Ryan Howard elsewhere in order to get in on the Gonzalez bidding.  (Would I like to have Vance Worley on the Padres right now?  Yes, yes I would.)  Too bad for Philadelphia that, unlike Boston, they couldn't shift their aging, ham-handed 1B to DH to make room.  (All right, Howard isn't that old, but the arc of his last 5 seasons look like those of someone on the wrong side of their prime rather than someone heading into it)

Dunn's numbers from 2008-2010 are very similar to Howard's, they're the same age, and Dunn's numbers have been consistent over the last several years, rather than in decline, so he should have been a relatively great deal for the White Sox at $12M/year.  Stark has already cataloged Dunn's struggles this season, including "stealing" the comparison I was going to make to Rob Deer.  I remember hoping for Deer's strikeout total to exceed his batting average back in '91; numbers-wise, I thought it would have been a season for the ages and very difficult to duplicate because you simultaneously need to be bad enough to bat under .200 and strike out that often, while good enough for your team to put you in the lineup every day.  And yet here we are, only 20 years later, and Dunn is on the doorstep of history.  The good news for Dunn is that he's 31, and could easily bounce back and hit 35+ HR for the next four seasons, bringing him over 500 and within striking distance of 600 in his late 30's, like a poor man's Jim Thome (and Dunn has a 30HR advantage over Thome's total at age 31.  Howard, sorry to say, is almost certainly not reaching 600, and very well might not reach 500 unless his AB/HR rate improves).  The horrible 2011 season becomes an amusing historical footnote in an otherwise excellent career.

Contrariwise, the problem for Ichiro is that much of his greatness is dependent on his amazing streak of 200-hit seasons.  That will end, unless he bats over .360 the rest of the way.  It's possible he could do this, but the reality is that over the last 5 seasons, Ichiro has only hit better in the 2nd half once (in 2008) and that was a modest 15 point increase.  He needs about a 100 point jump in BA, and the only time he did that was in 2004, when he was already batting .321 at the all-star break.  Ichiro could come back in 2012 and collect another 200 hits, but... he'll be 38.  Now, he could pull a Paul Molitor in '96 (who came off a .270, 142-hit season to bat .341 with 225 hits), and I hope he does, if only to break Rose's record of 10 total 200-hit seasons.  But Molitor, Sam Rice, Jake Daubert, and Pete Rose are the only players aged 38+ to reach 200 hits, and Molitor is the only one to do it while coming off one of their worst seasons.

2009 MLB Awards : NL Cy Young

A couple weeks ago, I thought this was going to come down to two pairs of teammates: Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, and Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain.  However, Cain pitched himself out of contention by giving up at least 4ER in three consecutive starts (all Giants losses while the team was fighting to stay with Colorado), while Javier Vazquez sneaked into the conversation down the stretch.

Why wouldn't I just give it to Carpenter?  Well, he's not going to reach 200IP because he missed several starts, and his ratio of strikeouts to innings pitched is less than impressive.  If he won, he would be the first starting pitcher to win the Cy Young with fewer than 150 strikeouts since Drabek and Welch in 1990**.  Not good precedents.  As for the others:

• Lincecum is still the alpha dog (if I could choose one pitcher for game 7 of the WS, I'd choose him), and was arguably better this year than last, except in wins and losses.  Giving him a second consecutive Cy Young would be perfectly reasonable.
  
  
• Vazquez was #2 in strikeouts and has a much better SO/BB ratio.  Vazquez's candidacy actually weakens Lincecum's in my mind because he, like Lincecum, pitched really well to help drive a team into playoff contention, even if they fell short.  (yes, his teammate Jurrjens has a lower ERA than Vazquez, but his strikeout to walk ratio and average game score are atrocious; Jurrjens' ERA feels more like a probabilistic anomaly than real improvement as a pitcher)
  
  
• Wainwright has a shot at 20 wins, led the league in IP, hit 200 SO, is top-5 in ERA, and was the ace and workhorse for the Cardinals while Carpenter was out.  

I'd be happy with any of them winning.  Can we give it to Carpenter and Wainwright as a tandem?


** I'm ignoring Cone's strikeout total of 132 in the shortened 1994 season.  Pro-rate that to a full season and he reaches 150.  Interestingly, that same year Maddux (the NL Cy Young winner) had 156 strikeouts because he reached 200IP in just 25 starts !!!

2009 MLB Awards : AL MVP

This really boils down to Mauer vs. Teixeira, right?  Mauer has the superior averages and Teixeira the superior totals.  My initial feeling is that it should go to Mauer, though he admittedly is coming up a little short for the Twins during the stretch run.

1. First look their situational hitting: Teixeira vs. Mauer (scroll to bottom); Mauer has superior averages in all situations (except, interestingly, when leading off the inning, and Teixeira comes close to Mauer's numbers when no one is on base) and simply doesn't get as high a percentage of at-bats with runners on to drive in as many runs as Teixeira.
   
   
2. Also look at the pre/post All-star splits.  Teixeira was merely human in the first half, and had a great second half -- so great, in fact, that his second half numbers are almost as good as the numbers Mauer averaged all season.
   
   
3. Finally, Yankee fan Phil gives his blessing to Mauer getting the MVP.  So there you have it.

2009 MLB Awards : AL Cy Young

This should go to Greinke, but I'm afraid it'll go to Sabathia if he gets to 20 wins.  Unfortunately, the difference in their win totals is an artifact of run support (second to last column).  Sabathia gets 7.84, which is 10th most in the AL among pitchers with at least 140IP, as of this morning. Greinke gets a measly 4.71, which is 36th, or worst, in the AL among pitchers with at least 140IP.


I tried to come up with reasons to resign myself to Sabathia winning the award, and thought "hey, he's pitched great since the All-Star break, and while Greinke was amazing in April/May, he hasn't been as hot since."  Well... actually, Greinke's stats before and after the break are each at least as good as Sabathia's post all-star stats.


Sabathia's numbers:





ERA
W
L
G
GS
CG
IP
H
R
ER
HR
BB
SO
AVG




Pre All-Star
3.86
8
6
19
19
2
128.1
110
58
55
11
38
95
0.232




Post All-Star
2.36
11
1
14
14
0
99
79
29
26
7
24
99
0.22






Greinke's numbers:





ERA
W
L
G
GS
CG
IP
H
R
ER
HR
BB
SO
AVG




Pre All-Star
2.12
10
5
18
18
5
127.1
116
38
30
4
21
129
0.245




Post All-Star
2.02
5
3
13
13
1
89
66
21
20
7
26
100
0.202






Let's hope the voters get this one right.

2009 MLB Awards : NL MVP

Would you like a first baseman with Gold Glove-caliber defense, BA/OBP/SLG at .300/.400/.600, and more walks than strikeouts?  That describes Albert Pujols, who should win his third MVP award this year, but it could also be Adrian Gonzalez, if he didn't play half his games in the worst hitter's park in the league.


Look at his home/away splits (as of the morning of 7/22); it's ridiculous.  He could use significant improvement against lefties, but for $3M/year, he's an MLB bargain.

By Breakdown	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs. Left	204	23	46	9	2	10	35	27	3	50	1	0	.225	.323	.436	.759
vs. Right	313	59	95	17	0	29	57	78	2	52	0	1	.304	.442	.636	1.078
Home	246	30	59	12	2	12	35	64	2	53	0	0	.240	.399	.451	.850
Away	271	52	82	14	0	27	57	41	3	49	1	1	.303	.396	.653	1.049

The so-called weakest division in the weaker conference

It seems like every year I read articles at the beginning of the season talking about how the NL West is the weakest division in a weak conference, and yet, if the season ended today, the Rockies would be the NL wild card. And in line behind them? The Giants (granted, with the Marlins half a game behind them). And I could see any of the top three NL West teams getting creamed by the Yankees in the World Series.

In the AL, Texas just passed Boston for the Wild Card. Would the Yankees would rather steamroll the Tigers or Rangers in the first round? And would they prefer the Angels to have to face the Red Sox or Tigers? These are the questions the hindbrain ponders on Monday mornings.

Peavy to White Sox

The trade that was supposed to happen in May, when Peavy was actually pitching, if not particularly well, went through last week while Peavy was on the DL. He'll be on the DL until the end of August, perhaps just in time to come back and get hammered by the Yankees that weekend, stay barely above water against the AL lineups, and then blow his one playoff start against the Yankees (assuming the White Sox make it that far). The Sox will then be on the hook for $48M for the next three years. Not sure how the option for 2013 fits in. Meanwhile, the Padres slash payroll, and maybe one of the prospects will work out.

We can officially drop Frankie K from future consideration for "greatest reliever ever"...

... because he walked Mariano Rivera (the current presumptive favorite for the title, though it's debatable) to force home a run. Sorry, thanks for playing.

Season saved?

Is an otherwise pedestrian season for the Padres saved by one single sight?

San Diego Padres
Hitters	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	SO	#P	AVG	OBP
T Gwynn CF	2	1	2	0	3	0	23	.325	.426

"Saved" might be too strong a word, but damn it does feel good to see a Tony Gwynn batting .300 for the Padres again.

Fred McGriff's 493 are looking better every day...

With Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez sucked into the steroid vortex this year, that now means that Fred McGriff and his 493 career home runs are 4th among players whose careers began within the last 25 years and have not (yet) been connected with steroids; behind Ken Griffey, Jr., Jim Thome, and Frank Thomas (at least until Carlos Delgado passes him later this year).  Does this mean we should actually be thinking seriously about McGriff's (and Delgado's) Hall credentials?  I'm not sure I really want to go there.

inside the mind of John Russell (the Pittsburgh Pirates manager)

Okay, eigth inning… we’re only down by two, so we’re still in this, but the immortal Evan Meek just threw a wild pitch to advance the runners to second and third… no one out and Chris Duncan on deck… that Sid Crosby kid sure is great, isn’t he?  Hey—did I give the sign to intentionally walk Pujols?  No?  We’re down 5-1 now?  Well, can’t wait to see the Penguins against Carolina; our season is already all but over.

When will managers learn : DON'T PITCH TO ALBERT PUJOLS WITH MEN ON SECOND AND THIRD!  I mean, he's only got the highest active career OPS (and 5th highest all-time).  He *will* drive in those runs if you pitch to him!  Heck, the Mets made that mistake only a few weeks ago! 

In Padres news, they just lost their 11^th road game.  Thank you, they’re happy to play the baseball equivalent of the Generals any day.  Jake Peavy "leads" the staff with a 4.30 ERA.  New closer Heath Bell, who has yet to give up a run, is stuck on 8 saves, and ex-closer Trevor Hoffman, who missed the first month of the season (and who has yet to give up a run), just got his 8^th save for the Brewers.  Good for Trevor!

The Best 0-3 Starting Pitchers Ever?

Add Dan Haren to the list.  This is ridiculous; get that guy some run support already!

SPLITS	G	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	P/GS	WHIP	BAA	ERA
Season	3	3	0	0	19.0	12	4	4	1	3	17	0	3	93.0	0.79	.182	1.89

Who are all these teams? redux

Jason Giambi is back with the A's.  Nomar Garciaparra is also with the A's.  When did this happen?!  I feel like Rip Van Winkle and I slept the whole winter away.

What with the bullpen struggles we've seen already, do you think some teams will regret not having even a washed-up Hoffman as their closer?  Here's hoping he gets to cause some regrets (I won't hold my breath).

Spring 2009 : Who are all these teams?

Last fall/winter is a haze, and I keep forgetting that the Phillies won the World Series, and that they played the Devil Rays to win it.   A bunch of players switched teams, but I keep forgetting who -- I vaguely remember the Yankees acquiring Sabathia, but he's still with the Brewers in my mind until he does something amazing for New York (good or bad).  I seem to recall Frankie K going to the Mets, but not Putz.  As for the Padres, Trevor Hoffman is out and with the Brewers(?!), Peavy is still there and probably seething but needing to pitch well for a new contract, Young might be good to go or injured or who knows what?  

Griffey is with the Mariners... again?  still?  Sometimes I want to turn back the clock a decade and beg him to stay with the M's.  Would his body still fall apart?  Would cheaters like Clemens, Bonds, and Rodriguez still have fabulous 00's at the expense of "good guys" like Griffey?  Well, all I know is that Griffey hit a HR on opening day for the Mariners, and all is temporarily right in the world.