Midseason ruminations

Given that the Padres were out of contention once Adrian Gonzalez was traded (and perhaps before even then, since the starting pitchers overachieved last year), I haven't really paid much attention to the season.  When I finally looked up, there were some interesting things going on, and while I meant to post during the all-star lull, I didn't finish these thoughts in time.

The Middling.  Continuing on the start of this post, as woeful as the Padres look right now, there's a little bit of hope for the future, especially if the prospects from the Gonzalez trade (and seemingly imminent Adams and Bell trades) pan out.  Also, Chase Headley might... just *might*, mind you, actually be finally showing some signs that the Padres could get by with him as their "star" for the next few years until the prospects are ready for the bigs.

Also, as good as Adrian Gonzalez has been, I thought he'd be showing more power.  I was expecting 50+ doubles (and he's even temporarily dropped off that rate), but also 40+ HR's.  However, along with the guys in front of and behind him, it appears the strategy is to just get on base, and I can't really argue with the results so far.

The Surprisingly Good.  There are a number of players having really good seasons, but clearly it's the Pirates as a team, not only with a great shot at achieving a winning record for the first time since Barry Bonds wore their uniform, but actually chasing a playoff spot, who are the biggest surprise.  I don't think their pitching is good enough for them to be this year's version of the 2010 Giants, but simply getting swept out of the playoffs by the Phillies would be a huge accomplishment for them.

The Shockingly Bad.  It's one thing to be a middling player having a bad season (Uggla, Stewart, Loney, Tejada, Figgins, Rios, Drew, all of whom are mentioned as mid-season "LVP" candidates by Jayson Stark), but quite another to be a superstar having a middling season, and there are a number of those.  So who is having the most shockingly bad season?  A few weeks ago my short list was Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Howard, Adam Dunn, and Ichiro Suzuki.

Even a few weeks ago, Pujols wasn't having a bad season... unless your name was Albert Pujols.  His OPS was 200 points below his career average, and he was on pace to hit fewer than 30 2B, 30 HR and 100 RBI, and less than .300, for the first time in his career.  He's now back on track to hit 30 HR, but his projected numbers for the season are a little shy of 100 RBI, several shy of 30 2B, and he has a lot of work to do to reach .300.  He could easily lose out on all 3 of those streaks, but as a power hitter, the one that matters most is the HR streak.

While Ramirez got off to an awful start, he seems to have responded to McKeon, and is now having a great July.  There's every reason to believe he can salvage the rest of the season.

Similarly to Pujols, Howard's numbers aren't terrible... unless you're being paid $20M/year to be the best hitter on a team with WS aspirations.  The Phillies offense has seriously underperformed, and Howard isn't helping with a seesaw season of great April, terrible May, good June, terrible July.  Then again, is Howard's poor performance this season really "shocking"?  His power numbers (in particular, his AB/HR has increased every year) and OBP have been in a steady decline since his breakout 2006 season.  Perhaps the Phillies would have done better to try to ship Ryan Howard elsewhere in order to get in on the Gonzalez bidding.  (Would I like to have Vance Worley on the Padres right now?  Yes, yes I would.)  Too bad for Philadelphia that, unlike Boston, they couldn't shift their aging, ham-handed 1B to DH to make room.  (All right, Howard isn't that old, but the arc of his last 5 seasons look like those of someone on the wrong side of their prime rather than someone heading into it)

Dunn's numbers from 2008-2010 are very similar to Howard's, they're the same age, and Dunn's numbers have been consistent over the last several years, rather than in decline, so he should have been a relatively great deal for the White Sox at $12M/year.  Stark has already cataloged Dunn's struggles this season, including "stealing" the comparison I was going to make to Rob Deer.  I remember hoping for Deer's strikeout total to exceed his batting average back in '91; numbers-wise, I thought it would have been a season for the ages and very difficult to duplicate because you simultaneously need to be bad enough to bat under .200 and strike out that often, while good enough for your team to put you in the lineup every day.  And yet here we are, only 20 years later, and Dunn is on the doorstep of history.  The good news for Dunn is that he's 31, and could easily bounce back and hit 35+ HR for the next four seasons, bringing him over 500 and within striking distance of 600 in his late 30's, like a poor man's Jim Thome (and Dunn has a 30HR advantage over Thome's total at age 31.  Howard, sorry to say, is almost certainly not reaching 600, and very well might not reach 500 unless his AB/HR rate improves).  The horrible 2011 season becomes an amusing historical footnote in an otherwise excellent career.

Contrariwise, the problem for Ichiro is that much of his greatness is dependent on his amazing streak of 200-hit seasons.  That will end, unless he bats over .360 the rest of the way.  It's possible he could do this, but the reality is that over the last 5 seasons, Ichiro has only hit better in the 2nd half once (in 2008) and that was a modest 15 point increase.  He needs about a 100 point jump in BA, and the only time he did that was in 2004, when he was already batting .321 at the all-star break.  Ichiro could come back in 2012 and collect another 200 hits, but... he'll be 38.  Now, he could pull a Paul Molitor in '96 (who came off a .270, 142-hit season to bat .341 with 225 hits), and I hope he does, if only to break Rose's record of 10 total 200-hit seasons.  But Molitor, Sam Rice, Jake Daubert, and Pete Rose are the only players aged 38+ to reach 200 hits, and Molitor is the only one to do it while coming off one of their worst seasons.