Annual Average Temperatures in Burlington

It's the start of another year in Burlington with no snow on the ground and none forecast in the near future.  NOAA provides a ton of weather data and so I downloaded some Burlington, VT weather data in CSV format.  The data I used comes from two stations, one for measurement prior to 1940, and data from the Burlington International Airport since 1940.

A quick scatterplot shows the average temperature in degrees Fahrenheit by year.  The years start with 1902 and go to present day.  The average yearly temperature ranges from about 42 to 50.  Obviously, average daily temperatures for individual days within every year have a much wider range; looking at the average yearly temperature is a useful first look at long-term trends.  Just by eyeballing, it certainly looks like there is a decades-long upward trend from the 60's to today, and a typical day in 2020 is 8 degrees warmer than a typical day in 1960.  That could easily be the difference between a January with snow cover and a January with bare ground.  

Fitting a best-fit line to the data helps us to see that long-term upward trend: 

... though a quick examination of the residuals confirms that the straight line is not a great model here.

A third-order polynomial does a much better job of capturing the initial stability, followed by an upward rise in temperatures.  A piecewise spline might be even better, but this is enough for a first quick look.  

Next steps might be to look at how the temperatures change over time for each day of the year, or look at the snow depth data. 

Vermont General Election 2024: Presidential Election

President and Vice President has seven candidates, a far cry from the twenty-one candidates four years ago.  

Claudia de la Cruz and Karina Garcia, the Socialism and Liberation party.  The first item on their platform page states, "The 100 largest corporations in America should be seized from their billionaire owners and turned into public property – owned by the working class that created their vast wealth in the first place."  For those who are confused, *this* is what socialism actually looks like.  It's a bold platform, but...

Rachele Fruit and Dennis Richter, Socialist Workers party.  They appear to not have a campaign website.  There are a few articles about Rachele Fruit, including one from February when Margaret Trowe was her running mate, but nothing that gives a sense of a campaign platform.  No thank you.

Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, Democratic party.  Their site includes 80 pages of platform initiatives (PDF, or you can read on the website).  Agree with it or not, but don't pretend she doesn't have any policies.

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Nicole Shanahan, We the People party.  They were too late in dropping out of the race to be removed from the VT ballot.  RFKJr's website claims Biden cut his Secret Service protection in retaliation for endorsing Trump, but he's been lying about this for over a year.  

Chase Oliver and Mike Ter Maat, Libertarian party.  They have a platform page that lays out libertarian ideals, without much detail on implementation.

Donald Trump and JD Vance, Republican party.  Right now (Sunday, Oct 20) when I go to donaldjtrump.com, that address redirects to https://secure.winred.com/trump-national-committee-jfc/lp-website-fry-cook.  If I go direclty to the URL of a subpage of their campaign site, like https://www.donaldjtrump.com/platform, I remain on the donaldjtrump.com domain.  The redirect feels really weird for a major campaign; at first I thought someone had hacked the main site and redirected to a joke page, but Trump really did "work" at McD's today.  At any rate, the "official" RNC platform is 16 pages, or 1/5 the size of Harris's.  Project 2025 is considerably larger, but we are supposed to believe that it's not the plan for Trump's second term.

Cornel West and Melina Abdullah, Peace and Justice party.  They have a platform page centered around justice; there is considerably more detail here than on the Libertarian platform.

Vermont General Election 2024: Statewide Elections

The primaries are over, and it's on to the general election.  Every statewide race is contested, but it's unclear if any are competitive...

Attorney General has three candidates:

• Charity Clark is the Democratic candidate and the current AG, elected two years ago.  She worked in the AG's office for eight years prior, so she is the most experienced candidate.  Her candidate site doesn't list any positions.  The About page for the AG office states the Vision as "A Vermont where the public interest and the natural environment are protected by a just and effective state government."  WCAX's reporting on the AG race says "she’s focused on online safety protections for kids, a growing concern with artificial intelligence, and addressing what she calls a youth vaping crisis."  The VTDigger profile has more on PCBs, domestic violence, and gun safety.  I would like to see more focus on the opiod epidemic, as that is a root cause of the current public safety concerns in Vermont.
• Kevin Gustafson is the Green Mountain Peace and Justice candidate.  He has no campaign site, the Q&A with 7 Days links to the party's website, which doesn't mention he is a candidate.
• Ture Nelson is the Republican candidate.  His positions mirror his answers to VTDigger's profile questions, and are concerning.  His focus seems to be on investigating whether public servants are "doing their jobs", with no mention of the opioid epidemic.  

Auditor of Accounts has two candidates:

• Doug Hoffer is the Democratic candidate and the incumbent with 12 years of service.  He has been excellent in the position, but is 72.  My one question for him is whether he has a successor trained up to take over when it's time for him to retire.
• H. Brooke Paige runs for multiple state positions every election cycle.  He is not a serious candidate, and it's difficult to take seriously his evidence-free accusations that Hoffer isn't doing his job.   

Secretary of State has two candidates:

• Sarah Copeland Hanzas, the Democratic candidate and current secretary.  I like that the office has been working on civic engagement.  I'm not sure it should be the highest priority, but I also can't offer an alternative highest priority.
• H. Brooke Paige, the Republican candidate, who believes vote-by-mail is unconstitutional and repealing it is his top priority.  Again, not a serious candidate, and it's sad the Republican party can't do better.

State Treasurer has two candidates:

• Joshua Bechhoefer is the Republican candidate.  He does not appear to have a campaign website.  His top priority, if elected, is to provide "more options for pensions where possible" without any further detail.  That sounds like dismantling the pension system in favor of 401k's to me, and not a good idea.  
• Mike Pieciak, the Democratic candidate and current treasurer.  His top priority is housing, which the state has invested in during his term.  Homelessness is another root cause of the current public safety concerns in Vermont, so it makes sense to me that encouraging housing growth is a focus for the Treasurer.

Lieutenant Governor has three candidates.  This is the only race that seems remotely competitive.

• Ian Diamondstone is the Vermont Peace and Justice candidate.  Like Kevin Gustafson, he appears to have no campaign website, and his VTDigger profile, which he did not bother to provide answers to, points to the party website, which does not mention he is a candidate.  I don't understand the purpose of running if one isn't going to do the bare minimum of campaigning.
• John Rodgers is a former Democratic senator and representative from the Northeast Kingdom, who switched parties this year to be the Republican candidate.
• David Zuckerman is the Democratic candidate and current Lt Governor.  I am a little concerned that he doesn't seem to have the full support of his party: he faced a challenger who took 36% of the vote in the primary, and a story about being reprimanded by the VT House Speaker was run in the leadup to that primary election.

There is video of a debate between Rodgers and Zuckerman.  Starts off very friendly and gets a little heated when the candidates start to ask each other questions.  There isn't a lot that separates the two.

Governor has five candidates:

• Esther Charlestin is the Democratic candidate.  Her policy page is focused on three issues and has concrete proposals.  I would like to see a broader platform from a gubernatorial candidate.  I hope, after the election, she is able to continue to advocate for these proposals.
• June Goodband is the Vermont Peace and Justice candidate.  She has a full and thoughtful platform.  I am concerned that she has no political experience and is starting by seeking the governorship.
• Kevin Hoyt is an Independent candidate who has been arrested and charged with stalking and harassment.  He does not have a campaign website.  Some of his answers to the VTDigger questions are ... not worthy of a gubernatorial candidate. 
• Eli "Poa" Mutino is an Independent candidate.  His issues page highlights three important issues, but there are no concrete proposals, and the governor needs to have a broader view.  
• Phil Scott is the Republican candidate and sitting governor.  His website doesn't appear to contain any policy or position statements.  He did not bother to fill out the VTDigger profile.  He will handily win another term. 

There is video of a debate between Charlestin and Scott.  Watching this, I was struck by Scott's dismissal of the work done in the state legislature, arguing for a shorter legislative session with the logic, "they pass most of the bills in the last week."  He was a state senator for 10 years; he should know better.

Disruptive Flyovers in the NNE

The outgoing mayor wants to extend VTANG's lease at the Burlington International airport for another 25 years.  The current lease is set to expire in just under 25 years; however, the DoD apparently will not release funding for construction projects at the base unless there are more than 25 years left on the lease.  Capital expenditures are only planned out 5 years in advance,but $50M is on the line.  That said, it might be nice to renegotiate VTANG's mission.  

A sore spot for some residents over the last few years has been the introduction of the F-35 planes at the base.  I've been a resident of the NNE, and worked remotely from my home, for 22 years.  For the first 18 years, a few times a year the F-16s would fly overhead and I'd think, "Wow!  That's loud," and go on about my day.  With the arrival of the F-35s, this changed, and in April of 2020, I started to keep track of the number of flyovers that disrupted normal life -- not "I can hear them in the distance", but "I have difficulty having a normal conversation inside my home because the planes are so loud."  The table and chart below are summaries of that dataset.  What is striking is not only the number of minutes of disruption, but that 2023 is showing a significant increase over previous years. 

Below are charts showing:

• Flyovers by day of the week; they are mostly in the middle of the week.
• Flyovers by time of day; they are typically during the first two hours of the workday and then again after a noon lunch 
• Flyovers by time of day and date; this shows the consistency of when the disruptions typically occur over time

In my dataset, I record the date and time of the disruption; if the disruptive noise continues for several minutes, I record each minute, which helps to differentiate between a relatively brief flyover versus an extended one.  An important caveat is that I don't run outside to check whether the aircraft causing the disruption is an F-35; I simply record the timestamp.  July 2022, for example, stands out because VTANG's F-35s were deployed overseas at that time.  I don't know what other aircraft might have been flying during that month; again, I simply record the timestamp and try to get back to work.

Obviously, this is my personal experience and not everyone is adversely affected by the noise.

I don't know whether the issue is that the F-35s are significantly louder than the F-16s, or whether they've changed the flight patterns so they fly over my neighborhood more often.  What I do know is that this is a drastic change from my experience with the F-16s; if they had been this disruptive when I arrived in 2001, I likely would have relocated.  

City of Burlington looking to sell Burlington Telecom

This makes me sad.  Like our transportation system, internet service should be public infrastructure.  Whether we get to our favorite websites via an asphalt highway, gravel drive, or dirt road should not be at the mercy of "market forces"**, but a conscious choice made by citizens.  Ten years ago, when we voted for BT, I thought we, as a City, recognized this, but a combination of factors (active interference from Comcast, a less-than-competent rollout of service, the financial meltdown of 2008 unexpectedly coming at the same time BT was looking to refinance their loan) have eroded voter confidence and many are ready to get rid of it.  

Ironically, at the same time we are looking to divest ourselves of control of this service, Google is touting the importance of the internet to our small Vermont businesses.  Google is right, but our future success requires statewide, top-notch connectivity.  Leaving that entirely in the hands of Comcast and Fairpoint seems like a poor option to me.

** there are multiple providers in VT, but Comcast is the only provider at my address

Big Blue and Little Green

Normally I simply roll my eyes at the content-free screeds that come out of the Ethan Allen Institute, but this piece by Rob Roper is ever so slightly more interesting to pick apart.  

I think everyone agrees on the importance of small business in VT**, but instead of the anecdotes presented, I'd like to see him do the research so he can show statistics on whether small businesses are going under at a higher rate than usual because of Shumlincare.

** After all, offering IBM $4.5M to stay is a bit...

(Disclaimer: I say this as an individual, and not as an employee of IBM SWG BA)

Roper also makes hay with the CNBC report... unfortunately, while they furnish a qualitative explanation of their methodology, they don't provide the points given in each area to each state, just the rankings in each area, so essentially they've given no justification for the individual rankings in each area, so there's no way to debate the merits of the rankings.  More disturbingly, while they state that "Education and business go hand in hand," and that they " rate states based on the education level of their workforce", their actual rankings of states by workforce and education appear to be opposites.  It looks like the education ranking is, indeed, a measure of the education of the workforce, while the workforce rankings are heavily weighted on the availability of cheap labor (i.e., places with high unemployment and weak unions).

Once again, let's see some real numbers to back up your arguments, boys.

Spring in Champlain Valley, and the robins are singing!

Baby, it's cold outside!

The dangers of seeing sarcasm quotes everywhere

The Slate post Here Are the Charts Showing Vermont's "Full-Blown Heroin Crisis" illustrates the problem with using quotation marks in headlines.  Instead of seeing the marks and thinking, "that's a direct quote from Shumlin," I thought, "this post is going to try to refute Shumlin's focus on VT's drug problem using some visual analytics."  Sadly, no, we really just have a serious problem with heroin in VT. 

Part of the miscommunication is my own cynical generation's continuing love affair with sarcasm, but part of it is also a failure on the part of the headline writer to understand that you can't use direct quotations in a vacuum.  I already knew about Shumlin's comments, but didn't recognize "full-blown heroin crisis" as a direct quote from his speech.  Better to leave off the quotes entirely.

My wild guess, based on the skyrocketing rate of abuse in the 25-34 crowd, is that the people who are most at risk are those coming out of college and not finding jobs in VT.  

Calville Blanc d'Hiver

Four years ago, I discovered the Scott Farm heirloom apples at City Market.  They continue to be my favorite orchard**, though I still haven't visited Dummerston in fall.  

One of the apples they grow that I particularly enjoy is the Calville Blanc d'Hiver, or "white winter calville".  Based upon the pictures I've seen elsewhere, this apple's appearance seems to be highly variable, so I've included a couple representative pictures of what is sold by Scott Farm.  The most distinctive visual features are the vertical ridges -- the Orange Pippin review calls it ugly and misshapen, but I find it unique and beautiful.


The Adam's Apples blog has a fairly good description of the apple, and notes its distinctive banana-pear smell and taste, but I strongly object to the idea that this apple is "not really for eating out of hand."  It is, in fact, delicious on its own as a light dessert or late night snack.

** though I'm very partial to picking the early macs at Shelburne Orchards, and my kids love the tire swing

Poor customer service + Little-known state regulations + Honest company = Big fat check?!

Our neighborhood was built on solid rock; my understanding is that our lot was a swampy part of a farm that was drained (60's and 70's-era wetlands management, bay-bee!), and what they found under the muck was solid rock, but anyways, that means we don't have a basement, and we aren't hooked up to city gas, so even though we live in Vermont's equivalent of a major metropolitan area, our house has a big tank of #2 fuel oil for heating and a smaller tank of propane for the oven and range -- the previous owners had a propane-fueled heating stove that they used as an alternative to the fuel oil-powered baseboard heat, but they really wanted to take the stove with them, so we actually use very little propane.

So, at some point not too long ago, our propane provider began charging us a rental fee for the tank**. More recently, they were bought by Amerigas, and changed our account number... after they had sent out the yearly bill for the tank rental, so of course they misfiled our payment -- it was accepted and cashed, they just didn't credit our account -- and after I called and they admitted their mistake and said they would straighten it out, of course they didn't, and that's when we looked for a replacement and found Patterson Fuels, who are awesome.

Amerigas was then supposed to pick up their crappy old tank and go away, but of course they didn't get around to it for nearly a month***.  They were crazy-makers, but we were done with them.  Or so we thought, until we received this letter:

This is the most hilariously unexpected correspondence we've ever received.  I've blacked out the amounts, but let's just say that given how little propane we use, all our cooking fuel needs and tank rental fees for the time we were Blue Flame / Amerigas customers were effectively free. 


** This was when we should have started shopping around for another fuel provider, but for some reason we didn't. 

*** and when they finally did pick it up, they filled up Patterson Fuels' tank, which is a big no-no.  We complained to them about it, but I still don't have the full story on how that ended

2013 Colchester Triathlon

Pictured, at least a few people finished behind me on the swimming. 

Sunday was the 29th annual Colchester Triathlon, and my fourth, and the results are in (actually, the results were immediately in, because this year we had anklets with chip timers in them).

Also, for the first time since I began participating, the transition times were broken out from the race times.  Now I'm not sure whether I actually did better than my last year's times, or whether I was actually slower on the racing legs because last year's racing legs included the transition times.  I think, maybe, or maybe am just hoping, that it's the former.

This year vtsportsimages got nearly everyone on the swim, bike, and running legs, so I now have a swimming picture (see how kind I was to wear a rash guard so you're not blinded by my pasty white flesh?) to go with last year's cycling picture (apparently, I look more or less exactly the same on a bike from year-to-year).  I will not be showing a running picture until I learn how to run properly, or at least look like I'm running in the picture.  :-)

Takeaways:

1. I was advised to get a wetsuit.  Maybe if I can find one on clearance.
2. My conditioning was better, but could still be improved.  A couple of spectators were alarmed by my loud breathing (I do that even when I've only been running 5 minutes, much less 25; I'm like Monica Seles out there, only if she sang snatches of "I Wanna Be Sedated" during the bike leg).

Primary goal for next year: wetsuit or no, improve that swim time.  I'm finishing 96th on the swim, 83rd on the cycling**.  That's not good enough for someone who considers himself a swimmer.  I know I can crack 2min/100 yards, so there has to be more pool/lake time next year.  A better running time will have to flow from improved conditioning through swimming; at 40+ years and a 6'5" 200+lb body, I simply can't commit to doing more running to train (the wear and tear would be too much).

** Note: All Sports Events has an interesting concept of how far 1/2 a mile is.  An 18:34 1/2 mile is closer to a 2:15 / 100yds pace than a 3:27 / 100yds pace. 

2012 Colchester Triathlon

It looks like I'm riding
a toy bike

Yesterday was the 28th annual Colchester Triathlon, and my third.  This year, I had a road (touring) bike instead of my hybrid, pictured right (purchased from vtsportsimages' smugmug account).

They've posted the results in PDF format, so it will take me a little while to get it into my preferred spreadsheet format, but it's clear that:

1. the road bike made a huge difference, beating my previous cycling best by 5 minutes (instead of being passed left and right, I was only being passed left),
2. the low lake levels shortened the swimming leg relative to last year, and
3. my conditioning could be a lot better (28 minutes to walk/run 5k is too slow)

Next year: improve my overall conditioning so that my legs aren't dead at the start of the bike/run transition, and so that I spend less time walking in order to get my breathing/heart rate under control.  I should be able to get to 1:20:00 "just" doing that.


UPDATE: spreadsheet up

Three possible local headlines for tomorrow

"Kurt Wright wins narrow victory; Hinda Miller admits maybe IRV wasn't such a bad thing"**


"Miro Weinberger wins narrow victory; Republicans blame IRV"


"Wanda Hines wins miracle victory; God smiles on the People's Republic"***




** Hinda Miller lost the 2006 election for mayor; even though she trailed eventual winner Bob Kiss in votes after the first round and therefore was entirely likely to have lost a traditional runoff, she blamed her loss on IRV because Republican Kevin Curley mind-controlled his supporters into casting their second-choice votes for Progressive Kiss.  I was ashamed to have had Miller on my ballot at all after that display of poor sportsmanship.


*** This is not an endorsement of Wanda Hines by myself (or God), but merely an observation that she is the candidate closest to the Progressive values that have defined the People's Republic of Burlington for the last 30 years.  The global economic meltdown has helped kill the People's Republic, and whoever we elect is going to have to cut budget to the bone.

Hi, it's Irving. Irving Who? Irving Gas

Got a call from some people "doing a survey."


She: Have you bought gas at a local station within the past two weeks?
Me: I don't remember.
She: Hunh?
Me: I own a Prius and don't drive very much. [as it turned out when I checked my records later, it had been more than two weeks]
She: How about within the last month?
Me: Yes.
She: Where was it?
Me: I don't remember.
She: Hunh?
Me: I know where the place is; it's the place I go to all the time, but I don't remember the name of it off the top of my head.  I could go check my records to find out.
She: Well, was it an Irving?
Me: I've never heard of them before.
She: You haven't?
Me: Nope.
She: Well, we have enough people in your category.  Thank you!  [click]


I was fairly certain there wasn't an Irving Gas in Burlington; looking online, they appear to be a MA-based company... oh, they do in fact have a location in Burlington, and it's the closest gas station to my house, and right across from the park we walk to.  My only defense is that it's a relatively recent name change, and I haven't fueled at that gas station in about nine years because they have the highest prices around, so I don't even look at it anymore.  Even with the name change.

Anniversaries

We just hit 10 years living at our current address -- it was the day Irene hit VT, and while there wasn't much at all in Burlington beyond some wind and rain (no flooding, no power loss) we were still distracted enough to have forgotten about having a minor celebration of the date.  Also, technically, I didn't start living here for another four weeks, because I was finishing development work on SPSS 11 before moving.  

2011 Colchester triathlon

The race was on Sunday and the results are now out.  I've put a spreadsheet of the individual results up on Google Docs.  Compared to last year's results, my swim and bike times were actually worse.  I'm not too concerned about the swim time, because scuttlebutt after the race last year was that last year's swim leg was shy of 1k, and everyone's times were low as a result.  The increase in my time from last year to this is consistent with the overall trend (maybe even slightly less of an increase, relatively speaking compared to the leaders).  It's still slightly embarrassing as a self-identified swimmer to be in the middle of the pack, even if the pack is very fit.  I'm pretty sure I did worse on the biking because I did more running and less biking than last year, because the running training was actually less wear and tear on my body (the position of my bike's handlebars is conducive to making my hands numb after 15 minutes of cycling; I really need to fix that for next year).  So: more open water swimming, more cycling with improved handlebars on the bike, and more overall conditioning so I can go faster on the running leg (I have no excuse, other than relatively poor conditioning, to not be doing a sub-25 minute 5k).

Hey left hand, it's right hand. Whatcha up to? : VT DMV edition

We purchased a "new" used car, and the new license plates arrived on Saturday.  Thankfully, I have Sarahmac around to point out things like, "those are truck plates."  You know, because of the big TRK on the left side of the plate.


So this morning I call the DMV, using the number printed on the envelope that the plates came in -- the number that the envelope says to call if there are any problems with the plates -- and they can't help me.  Why?  Because these plates aren't in the system yet.  Call back in a week.  Why wouldn't these plates be put in the system as they're being put in the envelope?  I mean, aside from the obvious reason that the VT DMV's system for tracking this kind of information is horribly broken.

VT healthcare bill

I think some people are confused about why IBM might be against the healthcare bill in the VT legislature.

Smaller employers are put in a class with other small employers, and their health plan terms are determined by an insurance company.  IBM is self-insured.  It is its own class, and it already has fiscal predictability in the corporate budget for healthcare, or at least far more than any smaller employer.  The status quo benefits IBM as a company; why would it want to change that?

Granted, even as an employee of IBM, I might still want to see the VT bill go through, because (according to what Sarahmac has read) it would actually lower our cost of healthcare coverage.  Better yet, I'd like the option of taking either the VT plan or the IBM plan.

Voting 3rd Party != Abstentionism (VT statewide officers edition)

A recent post at Green Mountain Daily argues that "a vote for a third party candidate this time around is the same as abstentionism."  That depends.  If you believe that, in the case no candidate receives a majority of popular vote, the General Assembly will elect the Republican or Democrat candidate that you prefer, then a vote for a third party candidate is in effect a vote for your preferred major party candidate.  Plus, if you truly prefer a third party candidate, you effectively get to exercise a limited sort of IRV.

The fight against innumeracy

The Vermont News Guy is in my Reader on a trial basis, and so far I'm fairly happy.  And I should love his post on Numbers and Words, but unfortunately while railing against innumeracy, he commits the crime himself.  Sigh.  To wit, the problematic portion of the post says:

Vermonters between the ages of five and 17 had almost the same poverty rate (10.6 percent) as the entire population, but the rate for children under five was a surprisingly high 16.2 percent. Even that was lower than in most other states. In Mississippi, more than 30 percent of children under five were poor.

Unlike most states in the deep South, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and both Dakotas, no county in Vermont had a poverty rate of anywhere close to 30 percent. Still, there were obvious – and perhaps not surprising – differences among the state’s 14 counties. The lowest rate was Grand Isle County’s 8.4 percent; the highest Essex County’s 14.8 percent.

The rates in the rest of the state were as follows: Addison 10.4; Bennington 12.2;  Caledonia 11.8; Chittenden 9.6; Franklin 9,9; Lamoille 10.1; Orange 10.9; Orleans 14.3; Rutland 11.6; Washington 9.7; Windham 9.8; Windsor 9.3.

When he notes that no county in Vermont had a poverty rate close to 30 percent, that 30 percent benchmark is set by the percentage of children under five in poverty in Mississippi.  For the state of VT, the poverty rate for children under five is 16.2, but then he lists the poverty rate for all people, instead of the rate for children under five, by county.  What he wants to look at are the by-county poverty rates for children under 5.