Thursday, July 18, 2013

Statistical follies: "peak" cars in VT

UVM economist Art Woolf suggests 
Vermont may be on the declining side of a “peak cars” curve.
...and offers the following graph as evidence.
 

The problem is that simply looking at the number of registrations is misleading, because registrations are strongly associated with the size of the driving population.  This is noted in the title and article, but the author doesn't actually, you know, deal with it.  We're really interested in whether the typical Vermonter is more or less likely to own a car now than 10-20 years ago.   A more useful chart would look at the number of registrations, relative to the size of the driving population (say, by plotting the ratio of registrations to population on the vertical axis) over time. 
Moreover, the numbers in the bar chart in the article don't match the numbers from the census (the census is counting buses, but the census numbers are lower than Woolf's, so maybe Vermont has negative buses?).  And, of course, the article contains no references or (heaven forbid, because it's only 2013) links to the data source the author is using.
 
Using Census motor vehicle registration and population data, I see something more like:

1980 1985 1990 1995    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
347 398 462 492 515 534 537 516 523 508 588 565 581 557
511 530 563 589 609 612 615 617 618 619 620 620 621 622














0.68 0.75 0.82 0.84 0.85 0.87 0.87 0.84 0.85 0.82 0.95 0.91 0.94 0.9
 
the last row is the ratio of registrations to population, suggesting that the rate of vehicle ownership has increased over the last 30 years.  I'm a little suspicious (okay, a lot suspicious) of the enormous jump from 2005-2006, but have no experience with the data from which I can form a hypothesis, other than, "someone should check that out."

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