Vermont may be on the declining side of a “peak cars” curve....and offers the following graph as evidence.
The problem is that simply looking at the number of registrations is misleading,
because registrations are strongly associated with the size of the
driving population. This is noted in the title and article, but the
author doesn't actually, you know, deal with it. We're really interested in
whether the typical Vermonter is more or less likely to own a car now
than 10-20 years ago. A more useful chart would look at the number of
registrations, relative to the size of the driving population (say, by
plotting the ratio of registrations to population on the vertical axis)
over time.
Moreover, the numbers in the bar chart in the article don't match the numbers from the census (the census is counting buses, but the census numbers are lower than Woolf's, so maybe Vermont has negative buses?). And, of course, the article contains no references or (heaven forbid, because it's only 2013) links to the data source the author is using.
Using Census motor vehicle registration and population data, I see something more like:
1980 | 1985 | 1990 | 1995 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |
347 | 398 | 462 | 492 | 515 | 534 | 537 | 516 | 523 | 508 | 588 | 565 | 581 | 557 |
511 | 530 | 563 | 589 | 609 | 612 | 615 | 617 | 618 | 619 | 620 | 620 | 621 | 622 |
0.68 | 0.75 | 0.82 | 0.84 | 0.85 | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.84 | 0.85 | 0.82 | 0.95 | 0.91 | 0.94 | 0.9 |
the last row is the ratio of registrations to population, suggesting that the rate of vehicle ownership has increased over the last 30 years. I'm a little suspicious (okay, a lot suspicious) of the enormous jump from 2005-2006, but have no experience with the data from which I can form a hypothesis, other than, "someone should check that out."
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