2007 MLB MVP/CY awards, part 1

I don't envy the voters. The NL Cy Young and AL MVP races should be sewn up, and the only drama remaining should be who the runners-up to Peavy and Rodriguez will be (unless, of course, the Yankees catch Boston, in which case AL MVP should go to Gagne in a Yankees uniform ;-).

The AL Cy Young and NL MVP are... complete messes. Let's start with the AL Cy Young; the semi-long list, by ERA, is:

Fausto Carmona
John Lackey
Dan Haren
Josh Beckett
Erik Bedard
C.C. Sabathia
Johan Santana
Kelvim Escobar
Justin Verlander
Chien-Ming Wang

This is basically the top eight in ERA, plus Verlander and Wang. Let's start by knocking out Bedard, since he's been injured. Next, let's knock out Wang, since he's a similar pitcher to Carmona (induces an incredible number of ground balls), but Carmona is having a better year. Next, let's knock off Verlander, who has pitched very well in some games but also laid a lot of stinkers. Next, let's knock off Haren, whose ERA has risen in every single start from June 9 to September 22, Escobar, who has been terrible in September, and Santana, who has had a lot of tough-luck losses but also allowed 4 or more earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts.

I don't have any real complaints about the "top four". Maybe you don't pick Carmona because he's a rookie; maybe you don't pick Lackey because he doesn't have "star power"; maybe you don't pick Beckett because you hate the Sox; maybe you don't pick Sabathia because... well, actually, I'd probably put him first on my ballot this year.