Sunday, November 1, 2015

Innumeracy in the work of Jonathan Safran Foer

... or, specifically, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close.  I feel like I know this narrator, but then:

Page 40 of the 2005 hardcover states
"More than 9 million people live in New York (a baby is born in New York every 50 seconds)".
Even without looking it up, I know this is obviously wrong.  9 million is very roughly 1/700 of the world population, so if the NYC birthrate is 1/50sec (and roughly equal to the worldwide birthrate), then more than 10 people are being born worldwide every second.  Last I checked, it was more like 1 every 4 seconds or so.

But we can get the right numbers.  See https://a816-healthpsi.nyc.gov/epiquery/Birth/, for example, and we see that there were 122,937 births in NYC in 2002.  That's (122,937/24)/60 = about 14 every hour, or one every 4 minutes and 16 seconds.

I know that the narrator is a child, but a child's mistake (in particular, *this* child's mistake) is to calculate 18 as the number of locks per person in NYC and then assume, as part of their calculations on how quickly he could try every lock in NYC, that 18 new locks come into being every time someone is born in NYC.  *This* child would not make a simple error in arithmetic, or fail to look up readily available facts.

Speaking of that calculation, on the next page it states,
"I figured out that if a baby is born in New York every 50 seconds, and each person has 18 locks, a new lock is created in New York every 2.777 [with a vinculum over the 7s] seconds."  
That is fine as far as it goes, since 50/18=2.777; (hah, turns out it was easy to add the overline with HTML markup) however, it then goes on to say
"So even if all I did was open locks, I'd still be falling behind by .333 [with vinculum] locks every second. [under the experimental evidence that it takes 3 seconds to open a lock]"
But 3-2.777 is .222, not .333.  Again, not a mistake *this* child would make.

This is me becoming increasingly disappointed with the physical world.  I had to stop reading this and go back to Fool Moon last night because I didn't want to lose this page before writing this post, and Fool Moon was the only other book on the bedstand.

Saturday, October 24, 2015

Someone left their shoes outside, or fun with optics

Came downstairs and saw a pair of shoes outside...


...but it was just their reflection in the glass.  Then the sun went behind a cloud, and the shoes were gone.



Tuesday, October 20, 2015

Queen City population follies

Apparently, if you don't send the U.S. Census Bureau accurate information, they may underestimate your city's population!  

This article raises a few questions:

  1. Has the City put procedures in place to respond to the Census Bureau's surveys in the future?
  2. How does Burlington's underwhelming population growth rate since 1970, relative to its metropolitan area, compare to other U.S. cities?  Is this unique to Burlington, or part of the general flight from downtowns to suburbia?
  3. Renters are spending 44% of their income on rent?  That's dangerous to your population.  It's one thing to do this as a graduate student temporarily living on teaching and research assistantships, but it's not sustainable as a paid professional trying to raise a family.  The 2014 Downtown Housing Strategy Report has some great recommendations, but can they be implemented on a reasonable timeline to make a difference?



Friday, October 9, 2015

Uprooted; Naomi Novik; 2015

Do you love Robin McKinley's stories of Damar?  Do you have a secret longing to read Diana Wynne Jones's Howl's Moving Castle rewritten in the style of one of McKinley's retold fairy tales and updated for a 2015 audience?  [Do you also secretly wish the sex scenes were slightly more explicit?]

If so, then get a copy of Uprooted IMMEDIATELY and start reading.  This has easily been my favorite book so far this year.