The semi-long list of NL MVP candidates are, in OPS order (and excluding pitchers):
Chipper Jones
Matt Holliday
Prince Fielder
Albert Pujols
Chase Utley
Miguel Cabrera
David Wright
Hanley Ramirez
Ryan Howard
Adam Dunn
Jimmy Rollins
First, let's knock off Dunn and Howard, who are having nearly identical seasons that are not quite as good as Prince Fielder's. Next let's unfairly knock off a few people due to circumstances largely beyond their control: Cabrera and Ramirez, because their team sucks, and Pujols and Fielder, either of whom could have won the MVP if their team won the NL Central (and if Pujols hadn't been hurt). Next, we knock off Holliday, because while he's having an incredible season at Coors Field, he's been terrible just about everywhere else (and played absolutely no role in the sweep of the Padres).
I really have no complaints with the last four. Maybe you don't choose Rollins, despite his other outstanding numbers, because of his low OBP; maybe you don't choose Utley or Jones because they spent considerable time on the DL, despite the fact that the Phillies only win when Utley's in the lineup and Jones has had one of his best years; maybe you don't choose Wright because he's otherwise so unobjectionable. Maybe you bring Cabrera, Pujols, and/or Fielder back into the discussion, and I have no complaints with that, either. As I say, I don't envy the voters this year.
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Monday, September 24, 2007
2007 MLB MVP/CY awards, part 1
I don't envy the voters. The NL Cy Young and AL MVP races should be sewn up, and the only drama remaining should be who the runners-up to Peavy and Rodriguez will be (unless, of course, the Yankees catch Boston, in which case AL MVP should go to Gagne in a Yankees uniform ;-).
The AL Cy Young and NL MVP are... complete messes. Let's start with the AL Cy Young; the semi-long list, by ERA, is:
Fausto Carmona
John Lackey
Dan Haren
Josh Beckett
Erik Bedard
C.C. Sabathia
Johan Santana
Kelvim Escobar
Justin Verlander
Chien-Ming Wang
This is basically the top eight in ERA, plus Verlander and Wang. Let's start by knocking out Bedard, since he's been injured. Next, let's knock out Wang, since he's a similar pitcher to Carmona (induces an incredible number of ground balls), but Carmona is having a better year. Next, let's knock off Verlander, who has pitched very well in some games but also laid a lot of stinkers. Next, let's knock off Haren, whose ERA has risen in every single start from June 9 to September 22, Escobar, who has been terrible in September, and Santana, who has had a lot of tough-luck losses but also allowed 4 or more earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts.
I don't have any real complaints about the "top four". Maybe you don't pick Carmona because he's a rookie; maybe you don't pick Lackey because he doesn't have "star power"; maybe you don't pick Beckett because you hate the Sox; maybe you don't pick Sabathia because... well, actually, I'd probably put him first on my ballot this year.
The AL Cy Young and NL MVP are... complete messes. Let's start with the AL Cy Young; the semi-long list, by ERA, is:
Fausto Carmona
John Lackey
Dan Haren
Josh Beckett
Erik Bedard
C.C. Sabathia
Johan Santana
Kelvim Escobar
Justin Verlander
Chien-Ming Wang
This is basically the top eight in ERA, plus Verlander and Wang. Let's start by knocking out Bedard, since he's been injured. Next, let's knock out Wang, since he's a similar pitcher to Carmona (induces an incredible number of ground balls), but Carmona is having a better year. Next, let's knock off Verlander, who has pitched very well in some games but also laid a lot of stinkers. Next, let's knock off Haren, whose ERA has risen in every single start from June 9 to September 22, Escobar, who has been terrible in September, and Santana, who has had a lot of tough-luck losses but also allowed 4 or more earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts.
I don't have any real complaints about the "top four". Maybe you don't pick Carmona because he's a rookie; maybe you don't pick Lackey because he doesn't have "star power"; maybe you don't pick Beckett because you hate the Sox; maybe you don't pick Sabathia because... well, actually, I'd probably put him first on my ballot this year.
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Fun with Afni
Today I received a COLLECTION NOTICE from Afni, Inc., for a "remaining balance from the original creditor for services associated with the previous telephone number listed below". A quick poke on Google showed that a lot of people are experiencing the same; the theme I've picked out is that Afni bought old debt cheap and is trying to collect on it, partly by snail-mail spamming people unassociated with the original accounts. Another problem is that in many cases, the "debts" appear to be billing mistakes by the "original creditors". Yay. Just what I wanted to spend time on today.
What to do? Well, I went to afnicollections.com, just to see how I might "manage my account online". There they want the Account # on the collection notice and the last four digits of your SSN. Hm. Well, I sure as hell ain't gonna give them anything they haven't already proven they know. No SSN on the collection notice, so online account management is out.
There's a toll-free telephone number for Afni listed on the notice; should I call and try to get this straightened out? Well, no. The overwhelming advice I've read is that you do /not/ want to get on the phone with someone whose primary motivation is to get money from you. Seems obvious, but there is definitely an urge to get on the phone/internet and "settle the problem" quickly.
So, it's the snail-mail route for me. These hits were helpful to me in writing a letter: http://www.ripoffreport.com/reports/0/271/RipOff0271533.htm#254990 http://complaintwire.org/Complaint.aspx/BL6ADlQfXwAGogjJkKUatA My letter went out in the mail today, Certified, Return Receipt Requested. We'll see what turns up!
The best part of all this? Further down on the Google search was the website for the company that "remove[s] negative information from the first pages of Search Engines and replace[s] the bad links with positive information." The internet is a beautiful thing; it's caused even the companies who harass people for a living to need "protection".
What to do? Well, I went to afnicollections.com, just to see how I might "manage my account online". There they want the Account # on the collection notice and the last four digits of your SSN. Hm. Well, I sure as hell ain't gonna give them anything they haven't already proven they know. No SSN on the collection notice, so online account management is out.
There's a toll-free telephone number for Afni listed on the notice; should I call and try to get this straightened out? Well, no. The overwhelming advice I've read is that you do /not/ want to get on the phone with someone whose primary motivation is to get money from you. Seems obvious, but there is definitely an urge to get on the phone/internet and "settle the problem" quickly.
So, it's the snail-mail route for me. These hits were helpful to me in writing a letter: http://www.ripoffreport.com/reports/0/271/RipOff0271533.htm#254990 http://complaintwire.org/Complaint.aspx/BL6ADlQfXwAGogjJkKUatA My letter went out in the mail today, Certified, Return Receipt Requested. We'll see what turns up!
The best part of all this? Further down on the Google search was the website for the company that "remove[s] negative information from the first pages of Search Engines and replace[s] the bad links with positive information." The internet is a beautiful thing; it's caused even the companies who harass people for a living to need "protection".
Monday, September 17, 2007
The Enemy of My Enemy is...
This weekend was tough with the Diamondbacks playing the Dodgers, and the Padres sandwiched in between in the standings. Do you root for the Dodgers to win, hoping the Padres will take the division? Do you root for the Diamondbacks to win, because you'd rather they win the division over the Padres than see the Dodgers go to the playoffs? Or do you just hope they split the games?
Clearly, the latter two options are the only acceptable ones (rooting for the Dodgers under any circumstances being unthinkable), and frankly, I'm torn. If Dodgers/Dbacks split games and the Padres just win, you get a little of the best of both worlds, but if Arizona wins, then at least the Padres are that much closer to the playoffs with the Dodgers knocked back in the standings (the Rockies are almost certainly out of it, and the Phillies are just teasing). And, given the recent success of wild card teams, just getting back to the playoffs seems like a good deal.
In any case, the Padres still just need to go out and win games. Go Jack Cassel!
Lastly, here are the cumulative games over .500 by division after games of 9/16; there's not going to be much change from here on out:
Clearly, the latter two options are the only acceptable ones (rooting for the Dodgers under any circumstances being unthinkable), and frankly, I'm torn. If Dodgers/Dbacks split games and the Padres just win, you get a little of the best of both worlds, but if Arizona wins, then at least the Padres are that much closer to the playoffs with the Dodgers knocked back in the standings (the Rockies are almost certainly out of it, and the Phillies are just teasing). And, given the recent success of wild card teams, just getting back to the playoffs seems like a good deal.
In any case, the Padres still just need to go out and win games. Go Jack Cassel!
Lastly, here are the cumulative games over .500 by division after games of 9/16; there's not going to be much change from here on out:
ALE ALC ALW NLE NLC NLW
2007-09-16 6 -5 21 -4 -47 29
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Taking out the trash
A recent article in Seven Days (the local "indie" paper) reported on the debate over a bill that would add a dollar to the cost of each tire sold in Vermont, which would then go towards the costs of collection and disposal. An opponent of the bill is quoted as complaining about why tires are singled out. “It’s computer stuff, couches, TVs, shopping carts, all kinds of things. Do we now tax a dollar on every TV that’s sold . . . on and on? Or do we try to enforce the current laws?”
Well, actually, putting the costs of collection and disposal up front, when the consumer buys the item, and providing "free" disposal when the consumer wants to throw the item out, makes a whole lot more sense than collecting fees at disposal time and spending money trying to enforce largely unenforceable laws against illegal dumping. Simply take away the "rational" incentive to illegally dump (boy, it's expensive for me to properly dispose of these tires/tvs/etc; I'm just gonna dump 'em in the river/woods and no one will know the difference), and you'll just be left with the vandals (heh-heh, wouldn't it be cool to push a shopping cart down this hill?) to try to catch and prosecute.
The challenge of creating a system in which the costs of collection and disposal are put up front (without creating a more horrible bureaucracy) is left as an exercise to the reader; given the existence of state sales taxes, the collection aspect isn't particularly important. Instead focus on the problems of proper assignment of the cost of disposal for items -- clearly a tire costs more to dispose of than a plastic potato chip bag, but how exactly should you assign costs? (a straight percentage might work; then again, a $40 dvd player probably costs as much to properly dispose of as a $300 one, and a lot more to dispose of than the packaging for $40 worth of organic green tea) -- and the problem of out-of-state and online purchases (solve this latter problem, and you've also solved a similar problem for sales taxes... good luck).
Well, actually, putting the costs of collection and disposal up front, when the consumer buys the item, and providing "free" disposal when the consumer wants to throw the item out, makes a whole lot more sense than collecting fees at disposal time and spending money trying to enforce largely unenforceable laws against illegal dumping. Simply take away the "rational" incentive to illegally dump (boy, it's expensive for me to properly dispose of these tires/tvs/etc; I'm just gonna dump 'em in the river/woods and no one will know the difference), and you'll just be left with the vandals (heh-heh, wouldn't it be cool to push a shopping cart down this hill?) to try to catch and prosecute.
The challenge of creating a system in which the costs of collection and disposal are put up front (without creating a more horrible bureaucracy) is left as an exercise to the reader; given the existence of state sales taxes, the collection aspect isn't particularly important. Instead focus on the problems of proper assignment of the cost of disposal for items -- clearly a tire costs more to dispose of than a plastic potato chip bag, but how exactly should you assign costs? (a straight percentage might work; then again, a $40 dvd player probably costs as much to properly dispose of as a $300 one, and a lot more to dispose of than the packaging for $40 worth of organic green tea) -- and the problem of out-of-state and online purchases (solve this latter problem, and you've also solved a similar problem for sales taxes... good luck).
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