Wednesday, December 30, 2020

Thoughts on the Sequel Trilogy

It's been a year since the release of The Rise of Skywalker, so let's look back and reflect a little on the sequel series.

The biggest issue, I think, is a lack of motivation for the characters.  At the start of filming on The Force Awakens, the creators should have known the answers to:

  1. Why has Han abandoned his family to wander the galaxy?
  2. Why has Luke gone into hiding?
  3. Why did Ben Solo turn to the Dark Side?

I don't think #1 is answered at all, and that Rian Johnson was left to come up with answers to #2 and #3 that are a case of misunderstandings-gone-wrong worthy of an episode of Three's Company, but not the core of an epic space opera trilogy.  

What would make sense as character motivations?

Why did Ben Solo turn to the Dark Side?

Let's start with the most important backstory to the sequel series, with the understanding that anything in this headcanon has to be better than, "Uncle Luke thought about killing me."

So.  Let's say Ben had a sister (nod to the Solo twins, though it needn't be a twin sister here), and they were both being trained by Luke as part of the new Jedi order, and she was killed during a diplomatic mission.  Ben wanted revenge for her death; Luke and Leia cautioned against it, but *Han* helps him get revenge, and so Ben is on the path to the Dark Side.  

Ben finds that revenge does not bring him peace, and becomes obsessed with the idea of "saving" his sister from death.  Han now sees that Luke and Leia were right, and tries to dissuade Ben from this dark path.  Ben leaves him behind and strikes out on his own.  Han reports back to Leia and Luke that he's lost Ben, but vows to bring him back.  Giving Ben a stronger motivation solves the question of Han's own motivation: he hasn't abandoned his family; he's out looking for Ben.

Ben spends his time researching old Sith holocrons, searching for a way to bring his sister back from the dead.  This allows us to tap into lore from Plagueis to Palpatine to Vader.  Note that this alters Ben's desire to "finish what you started"; instead of a weird reverence for Anakin's fall to the Dark Side, this becomes a reference to Anakin's failed attempts to save and then resurrect Padmé.  This allows us to bring back Hayden Christensen as a force ghost who tries to steer Ben back to the Light.

Ben needs funding for his researches.  He falls in with the First Order as the mercenary "Kylo Ren"; he trains their force-sensitives, and they fund his research.  There is no need for Snoke or Palpatine; Ben has no interest in becoming Supreme Leader.  Remember, he's not out to destroy his family; he's trying to save it, and he believes he's the *only* one who was willing to do what it takes to save it (this becomes a good bone for him to gnaw on, eventually driving him into more direct conflict with his elders).

He finally succeeds in cloning his sister, and through forced growth ages the clone body to young adulthood.  The Force Awakens begins with him performing the Sith ritual to call her soul back from the Force to this body.  According to his researches, it can take some time for the soul to return, and he is prepared to wait. Then he is called away on business, and he leaves the First Order's force sensitives that he is currently training to mind the store and contact him if anything happens. 

While he's away, the clone body wakes up, but doesn't know who she is.  This is Rey.  One of the First Order's force sensitives, Finn, feels a connection to her and helps her to bust out of the Sith lab and the two go wandering.  

Note that at this point, since Rey, our primary POV character, doesn't know her own backstory, it's a mystery to us, too, to be solved as the series progresses.  Finn is not much help because Ben has not shared the particulars of his research with his trainees or the First Order.  Moreover, when Han / Leia / Luke meet her, they recognize her as the spitting image of Ben's sister, and might suspect the body is a clone, but whether she is truly the same as that lost sister or someone new is a philosophical question to wrestle with.  Rey's and Finn's motivations are largely unchanged, but Finn is more explicitly Force sensitive, and having Ben and Rey kiss at some point gets a lot squickier.

The war between the New Republic and the First Order is all a backdrop to a much more personal story.  It's important, yes, because Leia must lead the New Republic's fleet in order to achieve a stalemate.  Wherever she goes, they are victorious; however, the First Order is making inroads as Kylo Ren trains their force sensitives faster than Luke can rebuild the Jedi Order (recall that the path to the Dark Side is quicker, easier). 

Luke has taken the Jedi Academy into hiding because they have been attacked by First Order operatives in the Core Worlds.  The stress of the situation can still weigh on him; the need to train Jedi for war can lead to teachings that stray toward the Dark Side, and every day is an internal test of his will to walk the path of the Light Side.


Monday, December 28, 2020

Headcanon: DCEU

A little over six years ago, we saw Man of Steel.  Even then, I felt that the movie would be better told from Lois Lane's POV.  Now, after all the DC movies since then, I feel like Lois Lane should have been the thread that connects the DCEU.  After investigating the the "man of steel", she moves on to each of the other heroes, and part of the tension in the story is what she learns about the truth of each hero and what she chooses to publicly report.  Her investigations are being secretly funded by Wayne Enterprises, and form the basis for Bruce's research on the people who eventually form the Justice League.

Monday, October 5, 2020

Presidential candidates on the VT ballot 2020, part 3

Continued from part 2...

H. Brooke Paige & Thomas Witman; Grumpy Old Patriots.  There is no campaign or party website beyond Paige's site discussion in the VT Secretary of State's race.

Brock Pierce & Karla Ballard; Unaffiliated.  Policy page has a number of items that sound good, but even after you click "Learn more" there is a problematic lack of detail about their proposed solutions.  Many of us can agree that the national debt is too large, but "We will balance America’s budget for the benefit of future generations" isn't a satisfactory solution without more explanation of *how* you plan to do that.

Zachary Scalf & Matthew Lyda; Independent.  Candidates and campaign have zero internet presence.

Jerome Segal & John De Graaf; Bread and Roses.  Website has a number of thoughtful statements on their philosophy (main page) and policy agenda page.  Unfortunately, both pages have the same big picture of Jerome Segal at the top, so it's hard to tell you've changed pages, the policy agenda page has "under construction" sections a month from the election, and the whole site is poorly formatted for reading. 

Gary Swing & David Olszta; Boiling Frog.  Party website looks like a joke campaign.

Donald Trump & Michael Pence; Republican. Issues page is a separate URL from the main campaign site; promiseskept.com instead of donaldjtrump.com.  Why?

Kanye West & Michelle Tidball; Independent.  Website is a one-pager that appears to be optimized for mobile.   


Sunday, October 4, 2020

Presidential candidates on the VT ballot 2020, part 2

Continued from part 1... 

Blake Huber & Frank Atwood; Approval Voting.  Just a half-assed party wordpress site for a one-issue party.

Jo Jorgensen & Jeremy "Spike" Cohen; Libertarian. The issues page lays out a number of problems that I agree are problems: soaring national debt & healthcare costs, wars, high imprisonment rate, etc., and there some parts of proposed solutions in the platform that are usable, but then there are statements like, "I will get rid of the FDA’s efficacy requirement, if not the entire FDA," as if every individual has the means to determine for themselves whether a drug is safe and effective.  This would take us straight back to the quackery days of U.S. healthcare. 

Alyson Kennedy & Malcolm Jarrett; Socialist Workers.  The candidates do not appear to have a campaign website and the party itself does not appear to have a website other than their weekly publication The Militant.  Had to hunt a bit to find their platform.  I support workers banding together, but don't think Cuba's 1959 revolution is a good example of the kind of transformation we need in the U.S.

Kyle Kenley Kopitke & Taja Yvonne Iwanow; Independent.  Campaign wordpress site accuses the Democrats & Republicans of trying to give control of the "American internet" to a "Globalist Agency" that "will lead to the brutal censorship of many Great Alternative American News Media websites."

Christopher Lafontaine & Michael Speed; Independent.  Campaign website has no plan or statements on issues.

Gloria La Riva & Sunil Freeman; Liberty Union.  Website has a brief 10-point program.  On point #2, I don't believe Socialism will save the earth.  On #5, while I'm for reduced military spending, I don't think we can do away with all of it.  On #10, we do need a better way to bring white collar criminals to justice, but I don't think Socialism solves this.

Keith McCormic & Sam Blasiak; Bull Moose.  The website makes the platform easy to find (yay!).  Sadly, when I click on A Bold Vision, I get "Nothing Found" (sigh).  The platform is an interesting read, and has some things to agree with, but also contains statements like "Today, we have foreign nations and traitor Neoliberals brainwashing troubled youth and giving money to extremist groups like the Klu Klux Klan, Communists, Anarchists, Nazis, and other hate groups who are trying to overthrow our government."

Continued in part 3.

Friday, October 2, 2020

Presidential candidates on the VT ballot 2020, part 1

There are twenty-one entrants on the ballot.  This might be a three-parter.

Joe Biden & Kamala Harris; Democratic.  Website pushes heavily for donations.  Be prepared to scroll to look for positions on issues.  Be prepared, once you do find Joe's vision, for a page of competing slogan templates: "Build Back Better" jostling with "The Biden Plan for ___" and "Joe Biden's Agenda for ____".  This page needs some serious organization.

Don Blankenship & Bill Mohr; Constitution.  Website has three principles: Equality, Ethics, and Exactness, which sound okay (well, the first two sound okay and Exactness elicits a "hunh?  guess I gotta read further to figure out what they mean by that) until you read the accompanying paragraphs.  

  • The description of the Equality principle includes the line "Calling people who speak publicly about the diversity issues racists will not fix the problem."
  • Ethics begins "We must return to a nation of laws."
  • Exactness begins "Americans must be made aware that they cannot rely on the media for truthful information."

Brian Carroll & Amar Patel; American Solidarity.  Website has a clear list of general positions on issues.  Sounds like a pro-life Green Party. 

Phil Collins & Billy Joe Parker; Prohibition.  <insert joke about feeling it coming in the air tonight>  I couldn't find a website for the campaign, just a page on the party's website announcing the candidates.  The party platform contains no citation for the statistics they cite.  The NIH says there are 14 million alcoholics in the U.S., compared to the 40 million claimed by the Prohibition party.  

Roque "Rocky" de la Fuente & Darcy Richardson; Alliance.  The top google result for the candidate is http://www.rocky101.com/, but it doesn't exist.  The Alliance party site mentions them as the party's presidential candidates and outlines the party's general positions... which, skimming through, I'm generally in favor of.

Richard Duncan & Mitch Bupp; Independent.  Sweet jesus this website, which I found from his Facebook page.  When I clicked on the link on his Facebook page, I got the following:

Hoo boy.

Howie Hawkins & Angela Walker; Green.  Their website is "under construction" about a month out from election day???

Continued in part 2.

Thursday, October 1, 2020

Representative to Congress race VT 2020

Ballot arrived Friday.  Looking through all the candidates.  VPIRG has a list of links to candidates' platforms.  

Peter Becker; Independent.  His website contains several rants: one against "partisan politics", though much of his ire is reserved for Democrats; one that claims COVID-19 only kills the unhealthy; one against the Democrats for instituting the national income tax 100 years ago; and one that claims racism is this election year's "trendy topic".  

Miriam Berry; Republican. Candidate's campaign website appears to be their personal blog.  There is an "Issues" page that only discusses education.  The main page touches on other issues, but only briefly.

Christopher Helali; Communist. Website outlines 3 themes: Peace, Equality, and Socialism. 

Marcia Horne; Independent. Website has a lot of links to various opinions, but there doesn't appear to be any kind of organization to it, so one is left with the impression of a 20-point plan where some of the headings are things like "Interested in the numbers?" and "Actually -- Switzerland is a Democracy".   

Shawn Orr; Independent.  Zero web presence for the campaign.

Jerry Trudell; Independent.  Website is just a bunch of videos with no extended text descriptions.  From the short text, looks like he doesn't like the F-35s.

Peter Welch; Democratic.  Website's "Issues" menu has 14 items to choose from.  I understand that a candidate may want answers to constituent questions about their positions on many different topics, but can a single person really promise to focus on 14 issues in a single two-year term?  Then again, maybe what we're really electing is Peter Welch's ability to hire and manage his staff.

See also: the Secretary of State's race.

Wednesday, September 30, 2020

Secretary of State's race VT 2020

Ballot arrived Friday.  Looking through all the candidates.  VPIRG has a list of links to candidates' platforms, and VTDigger has a candidate guide.  

Sadly, not a single candidate for Secretary of State chose to respond to VTDigger's questions for the candidates.

Jim Condos; Democratic.  Has a website with clear sections outlining why he's running and his positions on the issues that are important to him.  I would prefer Issues to be further left; as it is, it looks like getting people involved in his campaign is more important to him than the issues.

Cris Ericson; Progressive.  Discussed in the Lt. Governor's race.

H. Brooke Paige; Republican.  Candidate's website claims to be for his Gubernatorial and AG runs, with no mention of Secretary of State.  There is a laundry list of issues he wants to address, but again, nothing specific to the position he's running for here.  

Pamala Smith; Independent.  Has worked in the UVM library for 22 years; her website has a number of unclear menus across the top; for example "Updates (09/27)" and "News (09/24)".  Why are these two different selections?  There is a "Condos Files" page that has links to three videos that presumably give reasons why one shouldn't vote for Condos, but I don't know, because there's nothing in the text to indicate why I should go watch the video, so I'm not gonna. Her primary initiative is "Visually confirm your vote was cast just as you’d intended"; this is cool, but am not sure it's the #1 issue facing the Secretary of State.

Also see: the State Treasurer's race.

Tuesday, September 29, 2020

State Treasurer's race VT 2020

Ballot arrived Friday.  Looking through all the candidates.  VPIRG has a list of links to candidates' platforms, and VTDigger has a candidate guide.  

Carolyn Whitney Branagan; Republican.  The top-level items on her website each seem to be an issue of interest to the candidate, and there is both video and text describing her position.  She answered VTDigger's questions in detail, which is appreciated.  In a question about the state's investment portfolio, says, "The hardworking folks who administer it, and the state treasurer herself, have done well."  This is honest, but given that the Treasurer's #1 problem for the last decade has been the underfunding of the VT Retirement Fund, it's not clear what the candidate believes she can do to fix this that Beth Pearce isn't already doing, and Branagan's page on this issue doesn't offer a plan.

Cris Ericson; Progressive.  Discussed in the Lt. Governor's race.

Beth Pearce; Democratic.  Made a half-hearted effort to respond to VTDigger.  Has a clearly labeled Issues page on her website, but her positions are outlined in MS Word documents, and they appear to be from 2016 and 2018.  

Alex Wright; Independent.  Did not answer VTDigger's questions.  Zero web presence.  Googling "alex wright" only turns up the retired wrestler.

Also see: the Lieutenant Governor's race.

Monday, September 28, 2020

Lieutenant Governor's race VT 2020

Ballot arrived Friday.  Looking through all the candidates.  VPIRG has a list of links to candidates' platforms, and VTDigger has a candidate guide.  

Wayne Billado III; Independent.  Covered in the Governor's race.

Ralph Corbo; Banish the F35s.  Answered VTDigger's questions, if extremely briefly.  In this VPR interview, he calls out a lack of leadership on issues.  I can sympathize with this take, but he doesn't seem interested in providing a vision of his own.

Cris Ericson; Progressive.  Chris has her own wikipedia page and a website with a pitch for each of the five races she's running in.  This feels more like a stunt than a serious endeavor.  Did not answer VTDigger's questions. 

Molly Gray; Democratic.   Answered VTDigger's questions in detail.  In addition to the other platforms, has a website with a clearly labeled Issues page.  The issues page is well-organized around four main themes, with a bulleted list of the main points under each theme, and further details for each point. 

Scott Milne; Republican.  Did not answer VTDigger's questions.  When I first looked at his website, I thought it would be policy-free, like Phil Scott's.  Then I glanced down his campaign FB feed and found this post that suggested he did publish a plan, but... the link was broken.  So I went back to his website and clicked on ProgressVT, which isn't clear that it's about his policy on issues, but whatever, I found it now, and it's a 35-page PDF organized around the acrostic "ProgressVT".  I'm really glad he took the time to lay out his plans, and there is a lot to agree with in here, but I have serious concerns about the organizational skills of a candidate who has broken links on their site and puts up a 10-point plan in the form of an acrostic in 2020.

Also see: the Governor's race

Sunday, September 27, 2020

Governor's race VT 2020

Ballot arrived Friday.  Looking through all the candidates today.  VPIRG has a list of links to candidates' platforms, and VTDigger has a candidate guide.  

Wayne Billado III; Independent.  His most easily discoverable online presence related to his gubernatorial run appears to be an 8 month old reddit thread, and a Facebook page that was moribund until last week.  He's also running for Lt. Governor.  If you can't decide which statewide office you're suited for, don't expect me to decide for you.  

Michael Devost; Independent.  No presence beyond a candidate profile video.

Charly Dickerson; Unaffiliated. No web presence. 

Kevin Hoyt; Independent.  Facebook page full of videos.  Appears to be a one issue candidate (2nd amendment) full of vague accusations of corrupt Montpelier leadership and the need for Vermonters to "stand up and reclaim their state".  

Emily Peyton; Truth Matters.  Unlike the first four candidates, has actually responded to VTDigger's questions for candidates, created a website, maintains an active Facebook page (though it's not clear how all of the activity relates to her candidacy), and Twitter account (ditto).  The answers to VTDigger's questions are most illuminating.  There's a lot to agree with in there, but there's also a suggestion that most of the COVID-19 deaths are due to recent installation of 5G networks and not COVID-19.

Phil Scott; Republican.  Scott's website outlines no plans or policy positions, which matches his Governance by reaction, rather than leadership.  Has not answered VTDigger's questions.  He's running on his COVID-19 response and incumbency.  

Erynn Hazlett Whitney; Independent.  A website that clearly lays out the candidate's most important issues, but without any links to further details on policy for those issues, so while there's a lot to agree with in there, one is left with questions...  Facebook, Twitter, and Insta presences are collectively reasonably active, but not illuminating.  Has not answered VTDigger's questions.

David Zuckerman; Prog/Dem.  Website lays out the candidate's plans and positions on the issues in detail.  Has responded to VTDigger's questions.  I am a little concerned about a supermajority in the state congress + governor, because best policy doesn't come from an echo chamber.


Thursday, August 13, 2020

Burlington Property Taxes

I'm not usually a person to gripe about taxes.  Generally speaking, if I'm paying more in income taxes now than 1, 5, or more years ago, that's good, because it means I'm making more money. 

I have a concern about the property taxes in Burlington, VT.

I've been a resident and property owner in the city since 2001, and thus have property tax forms for the fiscal years ending in 2002-2021.  So I can tell you:

  • For the fiscal year ending in 2002, the total rate was 1.3734%**.  
  • For the fiscal year ending in 2021, the total rate was 2.9571%.
That's an average increase of just over 4.1% per year over 19 years.

That's an average increase of just over 1.86% per year over 17 years.


This isn't sustainable long-term.


** This is an estimate.  There was a citywide reappraisal in 2004-5 that increased the appraised value of our property by 75% and lowered the tax rates, so I adjusted the tax rates prior to the reappraisal by this factor so that they are comparable to the rates post-reappraisal.


Saturday, June 13, 2020

Trash in the time of COVID-19

The City of Burlington does not have trash collection as a service**, ***.  Citizens either contract with a private hauler or haul it themselves.  

I've been hauling trash to the Pine St drop-off for nearly 16 years.  Unfortunately, it's currently closed due to the pandemic, so today I hauled to the Milton drop-off.  This adds a good 40 minutes to the time to haul, and isn't easily combined with a post-haul trip to the grocery store.  So if the Pine St drop-off doesn't reopen, then consolidated collection starts to look better.

The Pine St drop-off is also the only facility in CSWD that weighs your trash, so I have 16 years of collected data on each haul.  For today's haul to Milton, I used our postal scale to measure its total weight of 48lbs spread across two 45-gallon bags and two 45-gallon trash cans.  CSWD is currently charging $10 for four 45-gallon containers, which is almost exactly what it would cost to haul 48lbs at $0.21/lb to Pine St.  So yay for that! but I still hope Pine St reopens within the next few months.



** Yet.  Burlington is considering consolidated collection.  While I support the general idea of reducing environmental impacts through consolidated collection, it is likely to be far more expensive for no added benefit:
  • Cost.  We currently haul about 200lbs/yr of trash.  This means that, at the current prices, we are averaging about $40/yr on trash.  That's about the monthly cost for some private haulers.
  • Other materials.  I'm glad to see that compost is covered under the proposed plan, but we also sort and haul batteries, books, scrap metal, used clothes and electronics.  If we will need to continue to haul these, that will negate savings we might have seen from not having to spend the time & gas to haul our own trash.

*** This gave rise to a now-amusing anecdote because when we moved to Burlington from out of state, we engaged the services of a buyer broker.  Because they lived in a condominium complex where the association negotiated with a trash hauler, he was unaware until we told him that the City didn't do trash collection.  

Sunday, May 17, 2020

Excess Mortality

When I first read about some of the challenges determining whether a death was due to covid-19, I wondered if it would be better to simply look at total deaths on a particular day this year vs. prior years.  It turns out there are a number of people and organizations interested in in excess mortality:

  • In Europe, EuroMOMO has charts and maps 
  • In the US, the CDC has a chart of weekly excess deaths
However, it's challenging to find data you can use to do your own analysis.  The CDC has publicly available mortality data, but this only records the month, not the day of death. 

Our World in Data has a nice article explaining the importance of excess mortality, the challenges of acquiring data to examine it, and publications that are tracking it.

Sunday, February 9, 2020

Idle thoughts on term limits, Vermont political constipation edition

Vermont sends 3 elected officials to U.S. Congress: 1 Representative, and 2 Senators.  Over the last 45 years, a total of 6 men have held these positions.

The Representatives:


The Senators:


By years in office during the last 45:

  • Leahy: 45
  • Jeffords: 32
  • Sanders: 29
  • Stafford: 14
  • Welch: 13
  • Plympton-Smith: 2
... so 3 men have provided the vast majority of the representation for the entire state of Vermont at the national level since 1975.  

Because it's nearly impossible to unseat an incumbent**, these are essentially lifetime appointments, and over the decades many potential candidates for these positions are left waiting for "their turn".  Welch, the current Rep, waited 18 years between runs for the U.S. House after losing in the 1988 primary to Poirier, and generations of potential U.S. congresspeople from VT are getting old and grey waiting for Leahy, Sanders, and Welch to retire.  

Term limits might be the laxative we need.

** the only time it's happened in the last 45 years was in the 1990 U.S. House election when Bernie ousted Plympton-Smith, after coming a close 2nd when he and Paul Poirier split the Dem/Independent vote in the 1988 election.

Sunday, January 26, 2020

Gabriela Montero


We were fortunate to see Gabriela Montero in concert Thursday evening at the Flynn.  This was her first time in Burlington, which she kindly described as "pretty nice" despite the freezing temperatures outside and the undersized audience inside.  

The program "Westwards" featured two pieces by Prokofiev, a Rachmaninov, a Stravinsky, and a screening of Charlie Chaplin's silent film The Immigrant with Montero providing an improvised piano score.

The only Prokofiev I'm familiar with is "Peter and the Wolf", so needless to say I was surprised by the modern sound of his music, and I don't have sufficient musical theory/training to enjoy it.  

Rachmaninov is a different story, and his music is more welcoming and invites you in.  I enjoyed this section and the Stravinsky very much.

After the Stravinsky, Montero took a few minutes to talk about "Westwards" and the thematic and personal connections between these composers and Chaplin.    It was fun to see a silent film with piano accompaniment at the Flynn, though the Flynn opened at the beginning of the talkie era.

After the screening of The Immigrant, Montero once again took to the microphone to ask for a tune or theme from the audience, which she would then improvise upon.  She did this twice, and it was awe-inspiring to hear, and perfect for live performance.  I would have been delighted for the entire evening to have been her improvised compositions.