Governor's race VT 2020

Ballot arrived Friday.  Looking through all the candidates today.  VPIRG has a list of links to candidates' platforms, and VTDigger has a candidate guide.  

Wayne Billado III; Independent.  His most easily discoverable online presence related to his gubernatorial run appears to be an 8 month old reddit thread, and a Facebook page that was moribund until last week.  He's also running for Lt. Governor.  If you can't decide which statewide office you're suited for, don't expect me to decide for you.  

Michael Devost; Independent.  No presence beyond a candidate profile video.

Charly Dickerson; Unaffiliated. No web presence. 

Kevin Hoyt; Independent.  Facebook page full of videos.  Appears to be a one issue candidate (2nd amendment) full of vague accusations of corrupt Montpelier leadership and the need for Vermonters to "stand up and reclaim their state".  

Emily Peyton; Truth Matters.  Unlike the first four candidates, has actually responded to VTDigger's questions for candidates, created a website, maintains an active Facebook page (though it's not clear how all of the activity relates to her candidacy), and Twitter account (ditto).  The answers to VTDigger's questions are most illuminating.  There's a lot to agree with in there, but there's also a suggestion that most of the COVID-19 deaths are due to recent installation of 5G networks and not COVID-19.

Phil Scott; Republican.  Scott's website outlines no plans or policy positions, which matches his Governance by reaction, rather than leadership.  Has not answered VTDigger's questions.  He's running on his COVID-19 response and incumbency.  

Erynn Hazlett Whitney; Independent.  A website that clearly lays out the candidate's most important issues, but without any links to further details on policy for those issues, so while there's a lot to agree with in there, one is left with questions...  Facebook, Twitter, and Insta presences are collectively reasonably active, but not illuminating.  Has not answered VTDigger's questions.

David Zuckerman; Prog/Dem.  Website lays out the candidate's plans and positions on the issues in detail.  Has responded to VTDigger's questions.  I am a little concerned about a supermajority in the state congress + governor, because best policy doesn't come from an echo chamber.

Burlington Property Taxes

I'm not usually a person to gripe about taxes.  Generally speaking, if I'm paying more in income taxes now than 1, 5, or more years ago, that's good, because it means I'm making more money. 

I have a concern about the property taxes in Burlington, VT.

I've been a resident and property owner in the city since 2001, and thus have property tax forms for the fiscal years ending in 2002-2021.  So I can tell you:

• For the fiscal year ending in 2002, the total rate was 1.3734%**.  
• For the fiscal year ending in 2021, the total rate was 2.9571%.

That's an average increase of just over 4.1% per year over 19 years.

• The median household income in Vermont in 2002 was $43,914. 
• The median household income in Vermont in 2019 was $60,076.

That's an average increase of just over 1.86% per year over 17 years.

This isn't sustainable long-term.

** This is an estimate.  There was a citywide reappraisal in 2004-5 that increased the appraised value of our property by 75% and lowered the tax rates, so I adjusted the tax rates prior to the reappraisal by this factor so that they are comparable to the rates post-reappraisal.

Trash in the time of COVID-19

The City of Burlington does not have trash collection as a service**, ***.  Citizens either contract with a private hauler or haul it themselves.  

I've been hauling trash to the Pine St drop-off for nearly 16 years.  Unfortunately, it's currently closed due to the pandemic, so today I hauled to the Milton drop-off.  This adds a good 40 minutes to the time to haul, and isn't easily combined with a post-haul trip to the grocery store.  So if the Pine St drop-off doesn't reopen, then consolidated collection starts to look better.

The Pine St drop-off is also the only facility in CSWD that weighs your trash, so I have 16 years of collected data on each haul.  For today's haul to Milton, I used our postal scale to measure its total weight of 48lbs spread across two 45-gallon bags and two 45-gallon trash cans.  CSWD is currently charging $10 for four 45-gallon containers, which is almost exactly what it would cost to haul 48lbs at $0.21/lb to Pine St.  So yay for that! but I still hope Pine St reopens within the next few months.

** Yet.  Burlington is considering consolidated collection.  While I support the general idea of reducing environmental impacts through consolidated collection, it is likely to be far more expensive for no added benefit:

• Cost.  We currently haul about 200lbs/yr of trash.  This means that, at the current prices, we are averaging about $40/yr on trash.  That's about the monthly cost for some private haulers.
• Other materials.  I'm glad to see that compost is covered under the proposed plan, but we also sort and haul batteries, books, scrap metal, used clothes and electronics.  If we will need to continue to haul these, that will negate savings we might have seen from not having to spend the time & gas to haul our own trash.

*** This gave rise to a now-amusing anecdote because when we moved to Burlington from out of state, we engaged the services of a buyer broker.  Because they lived in a condominium complex where the association negotiated with a trash hauler, he was unaware until we told him that the City didn't do trash collection.  

Excess Mortality

When I first read about some of the challenges determining whether a death was due to covid-19, I wondered if it would be better to simply look at total deaths on a particular day this year vs. prior years.  It turns out there are a number of people and organizations interested in in excess mortality:

• In Europe, EuroMOMO has charts and maps 
• In the US, the CDC has a chart of weekly excess deaths

However, it's challenging to find data you can use to do your own analysis.  The CDC has publicly available mortality data, but this only records the month, not the day of death. 

Our World in Data has a nice article explaining the importance of excess mortality, the challenges of acquiring data to examine it, and publications that are tracking it.

Flu deaths vs covid deaths

I feel like the fact that 10-20,000 people in the U.S. die every year from the flu isn't evidence that we should treat covid-19 less seriously, but that we should treat the regular flu more seriously.  

We can say "get vaccinated and if you do get sick with the flu, stay home."  Yet, the ability to take sick days is a privilege that not everyone has in the U.S. because our culture already prizes the stock market over human lives.

note: posted here on 3/29/2026 and backdated to when it was originally shared with friends on FB.  this is still a problem in the US