2009 MLB Awards : NL Cy Young

A couple weeks ago, I thought this was going to come down to two pairs of teammates: Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, and Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain.  However, Cain pitched himself out of contention by giving up at least 4ER in three consecutive starts (all Giants losses while the team was fighting to stay with Colorado), while Javier Vazquez sneaked into the conversation down the stretch.

Why wouldn't I just give it to Carpenter?  Well, he's not going to reach 200IP because he missed several starts, and his ratio of strikeouts to innings pitched is less than impressive.  If he won, he would be the first starting pitcher to win the Cy Young with fewer than 150 strikeouts since Drabek and Welch in 1990**.  Not good precedents.  As for the others:

• Lincecum is still the alpha dog (if I could choose one pitcher for game 7 of the WS, I'd choose him), and was arguably better this year than last, except in wins and losses.  Giving him a second consecutive Cy Young would be perfectly reasonable.
  
  
• Vazquez was #2 in strikeouts and has a much better SO/BB ratio.  Vazquez's candidacy actually weakens Lincecum's in my mind because he, like Lincecum, pitched really well to help drive a team into playoff contention, even if they fell short.  (yes, his teammate Jurrjens has a lower ERA than Vazquez, but his strikeout to walk ratio and average game score are atrocious; Jurrjens' ERA feels more like a probabilistic anomaly than real improvement as a pitcher)
  
  
• Wainwright has a shot at 20 wins, led the league in IP, hit 200 SO, is top-5 in ERA, and was the ace and workhorse for the Cardinals while Carpenter was out.  

I'd be happy with any of them winning.  Can we give it to Carpenter and Wainwright as a tandem?


** I'm ignoring Cone's strikeout total of 132 in the shortened 1994 season.  Pro-rate that to a full season and he reaches 150.  Interestingly, that same year Maddux (the NL Cy Young winner) had 156 strikeouts because he reached 200IP in just 25 starts !!!